RMT on Labour party research showing surge in overcrowdingRSS Feed

RMT on Labour party research showing surge in overcrowding

1 August 2017

RMT Press Office:

RMT on Labour party research this morning showing surge in rail overcrowding.

General Secretary Mick Cash said:
 
“These are shocking new figures that show once again that the British people are paying the highest fares in Europe to travel on rammed out and unreliable services while the private train companies are laughing all the way to the bank. It is a national scandal.
 
“To be talking about scrapping the guards, and the safety-critical functions that they fulfil, when Britain’s railways are already so dangerously overcrowded is criminally irresponsible.
 
“With the government scrapping vital new upgrade, renewals and electrification projects the chaos on our railways is set to worsen as surging demand clashes with austerity cuts and rank profiteering. The only way to end this racket is through public ownership.”
 
ENDS

Notes to editors

 

  • The table below lists the most overcrowded route each year since 2011 and the amount in excess of capacity. The most overcrowded route last year was the 0716 from East Grinstead to London Bridge which was 213 per cent in excess of capacity. 

 

year

Train Operating Company

Departure time

Origin station

Destination station

Arrival time

Standard class passenger capacity

Standard class passenger load

Passengers in excess of capacity

Standard class load factor

2011

First Great Western

07.44

Henley-on-Thames

London Paddington

08.29

225

404

179

180%

2012

Heathrow Connect

08.27

Heathrow T1,2,3

London Paddington

08.54

476

786

310

165%

2013

London Midland

16:46

London Euston

Crewe

19:24

206

435

229

211%

2014

Trans Pennine Express

04.22

Glasgow Central

Manchester Airport

08.47

191

355

164

186%

2015

Govia Thameslink Railway

08:20

Brighton

Bedford

09:25

420

960

540

229%

2016

Southern

07:16

East Grinstead

London Bridge

08:20

640

1366

726

213%

Department for Transport, Top 10 overcrowded train services, 27 July 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/top-10-overcrowded-train-services-england-and-wales

 

  • The table below lists the most overcrowded peak train services by the number of passengers above capacity. Once again, the 07:16 service from East Grinstead is the most in excess of capacity – more so than any route since the Department for transport began recording these statistics in 2011.

 

 

year

Train Operating Company

Departure time

Origin station

Destination station

Arrival time

Standard class passenger capacity

Standard class passenger load

Passengers in excess of capacity

Standard class load factor

2011

South West Trains

07.32

Woking

London Waterloo

08.19

738

1209

471

164%

2012

Southern

07.32

Tattenham Corner

London Bridge

08.28

860

1324

464

154%

2013

South West Trains

07:32

Woking

London Waterloo

08:19

738

1,278

540

173%

2014

South West Trains

07.32

Woking

London Waterloo

08.19

738

1180

442

160%

2015

Govia Thameslink Railway

08:20

Brighton

Bedford

09:25

420

960

540

229%

2016

Southern

07:16

East Grinstead

London Bridge

08:20

640

1366

726

213%

Department for Transport, Top 10 overcrowded train services, 27 July 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/top-10-overcrowded-train-services-england-and-wales

 

  • The table below shows the average per cent that the standard class were in excess of capacity on the 10 most overcrowded peak train services in major cities in England and Wales for each year from 2011 – 2016. Last year is the highest on record on average.

 

Rank of the most overcrowded service that year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1

180

184

211

186

229

213

2

164

173

173

185

215

211

3

162

166

173

176

196

194

4

160

159

169

171

176

193

5

158

158

166

164

171

187

6

157

156

164

164

166

184

7

155

154

157

161

166

184

8

154

152

156

161

166

180

9

152

150

155

160

163

180

10

152

149

153

158

161

177

average

159.4

160.1

167.7

168.6

180.9

190.3

Department for Transport, Top 10 overcrowded train services autumn each year, 27 July 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/top-10-overcrowded-train-services-england-and-wales

 

 

  • If the current rate of growth continues, by the end of the current parliament, in 2022, the average for the ten most overcrowded routes in that year is set to be over 220 percent in excess of capacity.

                                                              

year

average of the top ten most overcrowded service that year

average increase year each from 2011-2016

2011

159.4

 

2012

160.1

 

2013

167.7

 

2014

168.6

 

2015

180.9

 

2016

190.3

6.18

 

 

 

2017

196.48

 

2018

202.66

 

2019

208.84

 

2020

215.02

 

2021

221.2

 

2022

227.38

 

 

 

Methodology: Figures for 2011-2016 are taken from Department for Transport, Top 10 overcrowded train services autumn each year, 27 July 2017. Calculations have then calculated the average growth per year, which is 5.15 per cent. Assuming this rate of growth in overcrowding for the next five years gives us a figure of 227.38 per cent.

 

 

  • The table below show the number of passengers that were on a train service during peak time which was in excess of capacity in corresponding cities.

 

 

 

 

Overall  percentage of passengers in excess of capacity on their train service at peak times

City

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Bristol

0.8%

0.5%

1.0%

0.1%

1.4%

2.6%

Cardiff

0.6%

0.3%

0.7%

0.5%

1.7%

1.8%

Leeds

1.8%

1.8%

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

2.4%

Leicester

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

Manchester

2.1%

1.5%

1.6%

3.3%

2.9%

3.0%

Total for cities outside London

1.4%

1.0%

1.0%

1.4%

1.7%

1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blackfriars (via Elephant and Castle)

3.2%

3.1%

6.8%

7.9%

11.2%

12.1%

Fenchurch Street

2.6%

2.9%

4.0%

4.9%

6.6%

3.9%

King's Cross

1.2%

0.6%

1.7%

2.8%

3.6%

5.5%

Liverpool Street

4.1%

3.1%

2.6%

3.9%

4.1%

5.2%

London Bridge

2.2%

2.0%

1.4%

2.0%

1.8%

2.7%

Moorgate

3.0%

1.8%

1.2%

8.0%

8.5%

4.0%

Paddington

9.9%

7.1%

9.2%

10.1%

6.6%

6.9%

St. Pancras International

2.8%

1.9%

2.5%

6.9%

6.9%

4.8%

Victoria

2.1%

3.0%

2.2%

1.9%

2.8%

3.4%

Waterloo

3.4%

4.2%

4.1%

4.6%

4.8%

4.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

London

3.3%

3.1%

3.1%

4.1%

4.4%

4.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total for all cities

2.8%

2.6%

2.6%

3.5%

3.8%

3.8%

 

 

Department for Transport, Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays, Table RAI0209, 27 July 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/rai02-capacity-and-overcrowding

 

 

  • By taking the average growth in passenger numbers from 2011-2016, and assuming this continues, by the end of the current parliament, in 2022, the following will be the case in terms of total passengers in excess of capacity during peak time.
     

Extrapolated  percentage of overall passengers in excess of capacity on their train service at peak times

City

average yearly increase between 2011-2016

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Bristol

0.30%

 

2.90%

3.20%

3.50%

3.80%

4.10%

4.40%

Cardiff

0.20%

 

2.10%

2.30%

2.50%

2.70%

2.90%

3.10%

Leeds

0.10%

 

2.70%

2.80%

2.90%

3.00%

3.10%

3.20%

Leicester

0.23%

 

2.30%

2.53%

2.77%

3.00%

3.23%

3.47%

Manchester

0.15%

 

3.30%

3.45%

3.60%

3.75%

3.90%

4.05%

Total for cities outside London

0.05%

 

1.75%

1.80%

1.85%

1.90%

1.95%

2.00%

 

               

Blackfriars (via Elephant and Castle)

1.48%

 

13.58%

15.07%

16.55%

18.03%

19.52%

21.00%

Fenchurch Street

0.22%

 

4.12%

4.33%

4.55%

4.77%

4.98%

5.20%

King's Cross

0.72%

 

6.22%

6.93%

7.65%

8.37%

9.08%

9.80%

Liverpool Street

0.18%

 

5.38%

5.57%

5.75%

5.93%

6.12%

6.30%

London Bridge8

0.08%

 

2.78%

2.87%

2.95%

3.03%

3.12%

3.20%

Moorgate

0.17%

 

4.17%

4.33%

4.50%

4.67%

4.83%

5.00%

St. Pancras International

0.33%

 

5.13%

5.47%

5.80%

6.13%

6.47%

6.80%

Victoria

0.22%

 

3.62%

3.83%

4.05%

4.27%

4.48%

4.70%

Waterloo

0.12%

 

4.22%

4.33%

4.45%

4.57%

4.68%

4.80%

 

               

London

0.20%

 

4.70%

4.90%

5.10%

5.30%

5.50%

5.70%

 

               

Total for all cities

0.17%

 

3.97%

4.13%

4.30%

4.47%

4.63%

4.80%

 

 

 

  • By using the table above, an estimate of how many passengers travelling on overcrowded train services in 2022 can be made.

 

o   There are 583,432 daily morning peak time arrivals to train stations in London, meaning that by 2022 (at current passenger levels) there will be over 33,000 passengers travelling on overcrowded services.

 

o   There are 30729 daily morning peak time arrivals into Blackfriars meaning that by 2022 (at current passenger levels) there will be over 6,000 passengers travelling on overcrowded services.

 

o   There are 22840 daily morning peak time arrivals into King’s Cross meaning that by 2022 (at current passenger levels) there will be over 2,000 passengers travelling on overcrowded services.

 

o   There are 32996 daily morning peak time arrivals into train stations in Manchester meaning that by 2022 (at current passenger levels) there will be over 1,300 passengers travelling on overcrowded services.

 

City/Train station

number of daily morning peak time arrivals

Extrapolated overall percentage of passengers in excess of capacity on their train service at peak times in 2022

Extrapolated number of passengers on a morning peak train service which is in excess of capacity in 2022

Bristol

9,254

4.40%

407.17

Cardiff

13,379

3.10%

414.75

Leeds

28,524

3.20%

912.77

Leicester

5,770

3.47%

200.23

Manchester

32,996

4.05%

1336.34

London

583,432

5.70%

33255.62

Blackfriars (via Elephant and Castle)

30,729

21%

6453.09

Fenchurch Street

25,376

5.20%

1319.55

King's Cross

22,840

9.80%

2238.32

Liverpool Street

71,820

6.30%

4524.66

London Bridge

132,997

3.20%

4255.90

St. Pancras International

36,223

6.80%

2463.16

Victoria

65,826

4.70%

3093.82

 

DfT, 27 July 2017, Rail passenger numbers, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/rai02-capacity-and-overcrowding

 

 

  • This news comes at a time when the Tories are giving mixed messages about whether they will commit to freezing rail fares at RPI rises.

 

  • While overcrowding rises under the Tories, so does the cost of travelling on the railways. Regulated rail fares – which includes most commuter tickets, including season tickets – rise annually in accordance with the RPI inflation rate of the preceding July. As of January 2017, commuter fares have risen by a cumulative average of 27 per cent since 2010.

 

  • A Labour Government will cap regulated fair rises at the Consumer Price Index (CPI), using the money saved through bringing rail franchises back into public ownership.

 

 

 

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